The basic set up of an MCMC algorithm inanyprobabilistic (e.g.

This study uses a Variational Autoencoder method to enhance the efficiency and applicability of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (McMC) methods by generating broader-spectrum prior proposals. Traditional approaches, such as the Karhunen-Loève Expansion (KLE), require previous knowledge of the covariance function, often unavailable in practical applications. The VAE framework enables a data-driven approach to flexibly capture a broader range of correlation structures in Bayesian inverse problems, particularly subsurface flow modeling. The methodology is tested on a synthetic groundwater flow inversion problem, where pressure data is used to estimate permeability fields. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the VAE-based parameterization achieves comparable accuracy to KLE when the correlation length is known and outperforms KLE when the assumed correlation length deviates from the true value. Moreover, the VAE approach significantly reduces stochastic dimensionality, improving computational efficiency. The results suggest that leveraging deep generative models in McMC methods can lead to more adaptable and efficient Bayesian inference in high-dimensional problems.

The Metropolis algorithm is one of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that realize sampling from the target probability distribution. In this paper, we are concerned with the sampling from the distribution in non-identifiable cases that involve models with Fisher information matrices that may fail to be invertible. The theoretical adjustment of the step size, which is the variance of the candidate distribution, is difficult for non-identifiable cases. In this study, to establish such a principle, the average acceptance rate, which is used as a guideline to optimize the step size in the MCMC method, was analytically derived in non-identifiable cases. The optimization principle for the step size was developed from the viewpoint of the average acceptance rate. In addition, we performed numerical experiments on some specific target distributions to verify the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

The Metropolis algorithm (MA) is a classic stochastic local search heuristic. It avoids getting stuck in local optima by occasionally accepting inferior solutions. To better and in a rigorous manner understand this ability, we conduct a mathematical runtime analysis of the MA on the CLIFF benchmark. Apart from one local optimum, cliff functions are monotonically increasing towards the global optimum. Consequently, to optimize a cliff function, the MA only once needs to accept an inferior solution. Despite seemingly being an ideal benchmark for the MA to profit from its main working principle, our mathematical runtime analysis shows that this hope does not come true. Even with the optimal temperature (the only parameter of the MA), the MA optimizes most cliff functions less efficiently than simple elitist evolutionary algorithms (EAs), which can only leave the local optimum by generating a superior solution possibly far away. This result suggests that our understanding of why the MA is often very successful in practice is not yet complete. Our work also suggests to equip the MA with global mutation operators, an idea supported by our preliminary experiments.

We examine the zero-temperature Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm as a tool for training a neural network by minimizing a loss function. We find that, as expected on theoretical grounds and shown empirically by other authors, Metropolis Monte Carlo can train a neural net with an accuracy comparable to that of gradient descent, if not necessarily as quickly. The Metropolis algorithm does not fail automatically when the number of parameters of a neural network is large. It can fail when a neural network's structure or neuron activations are strongly heterogenous, and we introduce an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm, aMC, to overcome these limitations. The intrinsic stochasticity and numerical stability of the Monte Carlo method allow aMC to train deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks in which the gradient is too small or too large to allow training by gradient descent. Monte Carlo methods offer a complement to gradient-based methods for training neural networks, allowing access to a distinct set of network architectures and principles.

High-dimensional limit theorems have been shown to be useful to derive tuning rules for finding the optimal scaling in random walk Metropolis algorithms. The assumptions under which weak convergence results are proved are however restrictive; the target density is typically assumed to be of a product form. Users may thus doubt the validity of such tuning rules in practical applications. In this paper, we shed some light on optimal scaling problems from a different perspective, namely a large-sample one. This allows to prove weak convergence results under realistic assumptions and to propose novel parameter-dimension-dependent tuning guidelines. The proposed guidelines are consistent with previous ones when the target density is close to having a product form, but significantly different otherwise.

We investigate the use of spatial interpolation methods for reconstructing the horizontal near-surface wind field given a sparse set of measurements. In particular, random Fourier features is compared to a set of benchmark methods including Kriging and Inverse distance weighting. Random Fourier features is a linear model $\beta(\pmb x) = \sum_{k=1}^K \beta_k e^{i\omega_k \pmb x}$ approximating the velocity field, with frequencies $\omega_k$ randomly sampled and amplitudes $\beta_k$ trained to minimize a loss function. We include a physically motivated divergence penalty term $|\nabla \cdot \beta(\pmb x)|^2$, as well as a penalty on the Sobolev norm. We derive a bound on the generalization error and derive a sampling density that minimizes the bound. Following (arXiv:2007.10683 [math.NA]), we devise an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling the frequencies of the optimal distribution. In our experiments, our random Fourier features model outperforms the benchmark models.